Learn to use automated analysis without confusing confidence with certainty.
3 lessons · ~12 min · Introductory level
LESSON 01 / 03
From information to a hypothesis
01Data and sources
→
02Model hypothesis
→
03Human verification
Connect the concepts
A model can help organise text, compare scenarios and find relationships. Quality depends on data and task. A fluent answer may contain errors or outdated information. Ask for verifiable sources, dates and assumptions. Keep observation, interpretation and the decision to take risk separate.
Comparing models can reveal useful disagreements. However, models can share data, references or mistakes. Three agreeing answers do not equal three independent proofs. When there is consensus, check the original source; when there is disagreement, identify the changed assumption. Decisions still require judgment.
A backtest uses past data and may fit it too closely. Separating training and evaluation data helps assess generalisation but cannot guarantee future performance. Costs, delays and market changes matter. Before real automation, check permissions, maximum exposure, monitoring and the ability to stop execution.